Global Oil Production Peak Nearing
As the leaders of the world’s oil producing countries meet this week in Dubai, one conclusion is becoming inescapable; the days of easy motoring may be over.
Oil production in 33 out of 48 countries has now peaked, including Kuwait, Russia and Mexico. Global oil production is now also approaching an all-time peak and can potentially end our industrial civilization. The most distinguished and prominent geologists, oil industry experts, energy analysts and organizations all agree that a crisis is brewing.
Worldwide discovery of oil peaked in 1964 and has followed a steady decline since. According to industry consultants IHS Energy, 90% of all known reserves are now in production. There have been no significant discoveries of new oil since 2002.
While oil production is expected to begin declining, the demand for oil is expected to skyrocket. The oil industry is currently producing 23.6 billion barrels of oil per year, a rate that is rising 2% per year. But, by 2020 demand for oil is expected to jump 60% to 40 billion barrels per year. Much of the new demand will come from the developing economies of China and India. Home to more than 2.3 billion people, the two countries are industrializing at a rapid rate.
While alternative energy sources are expected to eventually replace oil as the world’s primary energy source, such technologies are not yet economically feasible. In the short term at least, consumers can expect increasing prices for oil and natural gas.
